A central pillar of the Fiji Government’s promised return to democracy in 2014 is the formulation of a new constitution to provide for one man one vote, a feature that was noticeably absent in the 1997 constitution abrogated three years ago. The job has been given to a panel led by Professor Yash Ghai, a constitutional expert who’s a global authority in his field, having forged national blueprints for governance in his own country – Kenya – and across the globe. Professor Ghai’s appointment disarmed even the most skeptical of Fiji’s critics because of his fierce reputation for independence. The record shows that he is no rubber stamp and is prepared to walk away if he feels his independence has been compromised. All of which points to an interesting few months as the consultation process begins in earnest and Professor Ghai and his panel of worthies set out to meet the Government’s deadline of next January to have their document ready.
Grubsheet has decided to eschew comment on the process – for the moment at least – in favour of this link to an exceptional article on the constitutional debate by the distinguished New Zealand academic commentator on Fiji, Professor Crosbie Walsh. He dissects both the players and the process in what’s undoubtedly the single most important event in the lead-up to 2014, not only for the future of Fiji but in reestablishing its credibility with the rest of the international community and especially its chief critics – Australia and NZ.
Well let’s hope that everybody provides the input required for a great constitution. Even those democracy advocates will get a chance. Whoever you guys are, people will be watching. This is your chance. Leave your side commentories aside and get involved. I know I will.
Wonder if the ethno-nationalist SDL diaspora led by the traitorous renegade Mara in Tonga, Baleidrokadroka and his lapdog Suli Dauniveidulu in Canberra (backed up by their hidden mentors Professor BL and Dr JF) will front up to the Constitutional Commisison in Suva with their so-called ’10 Point Plan’ ?
Time will tell if this is truly the beginning of Fiji’s ” Berlin wall moments “
Yash Ghai has all the right experience and we are told he has resigned before over points of principle. That is all very good but at the end of the day you have to faith that a dictator will give up power willingly and without any underhand activities.
Bainimarama record speaks for itself and on his record he cannot be trusted.
1- He has lied about elections previously
2- He talks endlessly about the Peoples Charter but has ignored most of the pillars in his own government.
3- He contradicts himself when talking about the future. He says anyone can stand for elections and then he threatens Qarase, Chaudhry and Beddoes: “He said he was concerned with the way they were conducting their political businesses and this might affect their return to politics.”
4- When asked about the return of the soldiers to the military barracks by the MCG last week Aziz responded. “My reply to them was, we’ll come to a decision after all the constitutional processes had been implemented”. So the question of the military one of Croz’s big 2 is going to be decided by the military after the Constitution Consultations.
5- Pardons for coupsters no longer work. We have seen past coupsters in countries as far apart as Libya, Chile and Turkey all being tried this year. They were all granted immunity as part of the process of giving up power. Frank and his boys in green know that so they will be forced to remain part of any government moving forward. The best we can hope for is a democratic government with a gun held to its head.
Graham, you obviously have faith that Bainimarama will do the honorable thing and we will have free and fair elections in 2014. Please share with me the basis of your faith.
@ Does the Dictator tell the truth
Most people in Fiji at the present time would prefer Bainimarama as PM over the self serving Mahen Chaudhry and Lai Qarase. Thats one fact you have to accept. Have both these two men (Mahen and Lai) always told the truth too? Ask Mahen about the millions stashed away in Sydney.
If either of these men should win power (heaven forbid) then a nother coup is in the offing – and the people of Fiji will be just as ambivalent about it as it is now.
Faith? Well, “Does the dictator…” I guess it’s a bit like religious faith. You either have it or you don’t, especially when you’re facing someone making promises but also carrying a gun. But to address your specific points:
1/ Bainimarama says he “promised” an election in 2009 in an informal conversation with a Tongan prime minister placing him on the spot. He says he didn’t believe that undertaking “was written in stone”. Not brilliant, I concede. Clearly a “promise” that shouldn’t have been made if there was no intention of keeping it. Yet the fact remains that none of the reforms needed to ensure lasting stability were in place.
2/ On the People’s Charter, your objection to its provisions being ignored are hotly contested. But leaving the PC aside, there is now a definite timetable in place leading to elections in 2014, including a Constitutional Commission, the calibre of whose membership cannot be faulted. Except, of course, by those who will never give the government even an ounce of credit. The whole world is watching and the government knows it has to deliver.
3/ Whatever static you cite, Bainimarama is on the record as having said anyone can stand for election in 2014. Preventing anyone from doing so will severely dent his credibility. That is not to say all three of these individuals will be standing. Laisenia Qarase is currently facing criminal proceedings that would automatically disqualify him if he’s convicted.
4/ It is self evident that the military will not return to barracks until the complete edifice of an alternative government is in place. Indeed, a large proportion of the population would insist on them remaining where they are merely to preserve stability. It’s clear that the military is already thinking long-term when it says that individual members of the RFMF can contest the 2014 poll but only if they resign to do so. This presumably includes the PM.
5/ My prediction is that the PM – as a civilian – will stand for office in 2014 at the head of a multiracial party. And I believe all the indications are that he would win. It is axiomatic that the military will be the guarantor of any civilian government into the foreseeable future, preferably under a constitutional provision outlying its responsibilities. One way to do this might be to give the military a specific task of ensuring stability for a set period – say 10 years – before returning to barracks for good.
I happen to concur with your sentiment that “the best we can hope for is a democratic government with a gun held to its head”. If racial equality in Fiji has to be enforced at the point of a gun, then so be it. What happened in the lead-up to 2006 – the steady marginalisation of the racial minorities – was totally unacceptable and must never be repeated. It’s no exaggeration to say that the process that began in 1987 was a form of ethnic cleansing, encouraging Indo-Fijians to find home elsewhere by signalling that they had no real future in the country. So is it really any wonder that they support Bainimarama for reversing that process?
Again, all this can evolve down the track. There are clear indications that younger people in Fiji don’t share the racial attitudes of their parents and are more multiracial in outlook. So as time goes by, hopefully there’ll be less need for racial equality to be formally enforced to keep the indigenous extremists at bay.
As I keep saying, what happened during the Qarase years was the tyranny of the majority, an attempt to disadvantage non-indigenous Fijians. When the other races look around them, what other protector do they have besides the military? Plus a fervent hope that the racial divisions that have caused this crisis in the first place can be gradually eroded over time.
What you describe in your prediction is not democracy but ongoing military rule for another 10 years. I rest my case this whole thing is a sham and the military will continue to tell us what to think and how to live our lives. Most worrying of all is along with their continued rule will be ongoing economic stagnation.
Does the Dictator tell the truth?
Me thinks he only shifted his “verbal position”.
Don’t worry mate if you have worked hard all your life without dependance you should be alright. I am.
Oh you’re worried about those other people hard to get by because suddently the support link has been cut off…. right. Dont give up bro, 10 years is not a long time and the constitution process haven’t started yet. There is still hope for people like yourself.
I mean look at me (literally of course). 1987 to 20006 and that makes it 19 years. 40% of the population had to endure what your current perceived injustices by the regime.
Don’t lose hope man. All you have to do is walk down the road as the common man.
Economic stagnation? Well, that’s your prediction but I note Professor Biman Prasad – a supposed authority on these matters – predicting that even the formation of the Constitutional Commission will have a positive effect on the economy. Isn’t it Economics 101 that the main prerequisite for economic growth is stability and certainty?
I’m hearing from several quarters that now the election process is starting to take shape, the international community is rallying to Fiji’s side with financial and practical assistance for the constitution and the vote to follow. This cannot be bad for wider confidence in Fiji’s prospects, both at home and abroad.
Yes, the democracy that follows will not be to everyone’s taste and clearly not your own. You presumably want a vote that restores the old order or allows its return in another guise. That was never going to happen because that system was based on race. If you don’t like a multiracial level playing field with the military as its guarantor, too bad. You can always take the route thousands of disadvantaged and dispossessed non indigenous people have taken since 1987 – straight to Nadi Airport and a new life elsewhere.
I could not agree more that Political Stability and certainty are the prerequisites for economic growth. However, you are jumping the gun to say that the announcement of constitutional consultations has given them to Fiji.
Political Stability is a long way off for Fiji especially for investors. Earlier you predicted Bainimarama will win the election. Do you know how he will react if he loses to Qarase? Will he accept the result and become leader of the opposition? Or will he say Fiji is not ready for democracy and use the military to put himself back in as PM?
Until we can answer categorically that he will become leader of the opposition we do not have political stability. The business people I know if Fiji are waiting until after the elections in 2014 before they make major new investments.
Certainty for business is also in short supply in Fiji. The Government rolls out decree after decree which tear up contracts and cannot be challenged in court. Businesses cannot plan for the long term because they have no idea what decree is coming and how it will affect them. We have at least another 2 years and 5 months of rule by decree. So no certainty until September 2014 at the earliest.
The other necessity for certainty is an independent judiciary that can enforce contracts, but as you know that has been removed and decrees cannot be challenged in court even where they tear up existing contracts.
With regards to increasing Aid from Donors the junta has a dilemma. ANZ offered to pay for voter registration, but the offer was not accepted because they wanted financial transparency with the company doing the work. This was not acceptable to Khaiyum. In years gone by aid would have been given to the government and government would have provided the financial transparency through the work of the Auditor General. But as there are no longer Auditor General’s reports donors no longer feel comfortable with Juntas ability to provide financial reports.
By law the traditional donor countries require this financial transparency on all Aid. So does the Junta accept the aid and allow access to the companies doing the work or does the junta turn away the aid as it did with Voter registration?
Your last paragraph was an absolute peach. You imply that because I am anti coup, anti dictator and pro democracy I must be a racist. Where have I ever opposed a multiracial Fiji? I have not and I agree with you we need a multiracial Fiji for the country to ever achieve its potential. I just don’t see the military as the benign guarantors.
There will be no political stability if the military is hanging over our heads like a threat waiting for an excuse to step in and take over again.
“Does the dictator…” your latest missive indicates that you have a definite case of the Eeyore’s – that terminally gloomy donkey in Winnie the Pooh. Every time an optimistic scenario is put before you there’s always a ” but….”
Neither of us has a crystal ball so neither of us can make a definitive prediction about how the coming months will evolve or, indeed, whether Fiji even makes it to an election in 2014. All we can do is look at the hard evidence now and that looks pretty encouraging.
A Constitutional Commission has been formed presided over by people of stature. Professor Yash Ghai is clearly not a stooge of the regime and has walked out of similar exercises if he hasn’t been satisfied. The United States and other western powers are assisting in the process. What this constitution will look like we can’t yet say. But the most important precondition laid out by the regime is one man one vote, non-racially based parties and a lowering of the voting age to 18. Is anyone seriously contesting that apart from those who’ve brought Fiji to its knees in the past?
It beggars belief that the regime would embark on this process if it wasn’t intending to deliver an outcome. Whatever credibility it currently enjoys – albeit none with the likes of you – would be shredded with any reversal and Fiji would come under sustained attack from many of its current supporters, let alone its traditional opponents.
Is Frank Bainimarama prepared to let Laisenia Qarase win and be opposition leader? That is a moot point. At the present time, Qarase is clearly a member of a racially based party -the SDL -that will be excluded from the election unless it reforms as a truly multiracial political organisation. Seriously. What are the chances of that happening when it’s the bastion of indigenous supremacy and its racial policies brought Fiji to this impasse in the first place?
Qarase is also facing charges for his role in the Fijian Holdings scandal, which will presumably play out in earnest in the courts in the coming months. If convicted, he will not be allowed to stand for public office again, in line with previous parliamentary practice which will presumably continue with the restoration of democracy. So another moot point.
It wasn’t me who said the investment climate was improving but Professor Biman Prasad, who predicted that even a credible constitutional process would be a great help to Fiji’s economy. You may not agree with that and neither may those in the business community you know. But that’s capitalism. People invest where they see opportunities and the prospect of stability.
I personally think Frank Bainimarama – for a whole raft of reasons – is the best person to lead Fiji during this particular phase of its development. Given the forces ranged against him both at home and abroad, I think he’s done a remarkable job of stabilising the country, setting it on a multiracial path and providing basic services to those in Fiji who need it most. Yes, he has his faults. But his strengths outweigh his deficiencies and I have seen no credible evidence from any quarter – in spite wild allegations to the contrary – that he is corrupt.
He clearly has the support of a large proportion of the population, judging from last year’s Lowy poll that gave him a 67 per cent approval rating. Even that doesn’t matter so much as the fact that his support is drawn across all races. Only two other leaders in Fiji’s post-independence history have arguably come anywhere near to achieving that – Ratu Sir Kamisese Mara and to a lesser extent, Timoci Bavadra, the best prime minister Fiji never had. This is a considerable achievement by any standard.
Of course, Bainimarama has to win fair and square. The 2014 election can’t be a rerun of the 2012 Miss World Fiji contest. No-one is suggesting he simply be installed. He will have to subject himself to the will of the people in a free and fair vote. But he’s indicated that he’s willing to do that and is confident he would emerge victorious. The proviso, of course, is whether he’s willing to stand in the first place. But is there anyone in Fiji who thinks he won’t?
Of course, things can always go wrong. Any significant civil disturbance in Fiji could derail the entire process, which is why the military and the police are warning of a crackdown on troublemakers. That is how it should be and the citizens of Fiji demand no less, especially those who were assaulted by indigenous thugs or whose businesses and homes were torched and trashed in the disturbances of 2000. The personal security of citizens and the protection of the economy is paramount.
What’s needed now is to see beyond the immediate horizon – a debate about the formation of political parties, the selection of credible candidates and the development of viable policies to take the country forward. All we have so far is the National Federation Party saying it intends to contest the election. Excuse me but the last time I looked the NFP was a racially based party. We’re also starting to hear about the shadowy Fiji First Party and I gather Shamima Ali is also canvassing the idea of forming a party of some sorts.
If Bainimarama is going to stand for office, he needs to form a broad-based political grouping and attract the best candidates he can. Because it’s not the 2014 election that matters, in my opinion, so much as those that follow. We need people of clear vision in the parliament who are prepared to resurrect the notion of public service in public life and govern fairly for all Fijians. That government – in my opinion – needs to be centre right, pro-business to encourage investment but with a clear sense of social justice to finally start tackling the needs of the poorest Fijians.
Graham,
You and I have a fundamental difference of opinion about what constitutes democracy. In my version the military is 100% subservient to the government of the day. In your version it has a major role to play and in fact will have the final word on many matters..
Now I agree with you when you said “It beggars belief that the regime would embark on this process if it wasn’t intending to deliver an outcome.”
I just don’t think what they are intending to deliver is what I would call democracy. I think what they will deliver will be military dictatorship under the veneer of democracy. We will continue as we have for the past 6 years with opponents harassed and bullied and their access to main stream media in Fiji highly curtailed.
I don’t think Bainimarama plans on being PM. He plans on being President. As President he will retain his control of the military as Commander in Chief of the RFMF. The President will have executive powers in the new constitution and the military will have supervisory powers.
He cannot risk his authority in an election because if he loses he could well lose his immunities. As President he will retain all his immunities and protect those of his fellow traitors.
From what you write I think you believe the end justifies the means and that in 12-15 years from now we will have a fully functioning, robust multiracial democracy. As you said earlier you have to have faith in the main protagonists to believe that is achievable.
I am sorry to say I do not have that faith. I believe Bainimarama and Khaiyum are lying, cheating and corrupt individuals who will stop at nothing to keep control but they understand they cannot continue as a dictatorship indefinitely. I have not arrived at that opinion lightly or without thought. In fact I used to believe Bainimarama was a man of honor. But sadly his lies and his actions have proved otherwise.
This fundamental difference of opinion is why we see the future of Fiji under Bainimarama so differently.
“Does the Dictator”, yes we will just have to agree to disagree. But I think my position reflects an acceptance of the reality of the situation as much as anything else and, frankly, yours doesn’t. Personally, I’d have been happy to have Timoci Bavadra as PM until the day he died and the Queen continue as Queen of Fiji. But that didn’t happen either and I’ve had to get used to it.
Where I fundamentally disagree with you is your contention that Frank Bainimarama and Aiyaz Sayed Khaiyum are “lying, cheating and corrupt individuals”. Please tell me what hard evidence there is for this? You’ve spoken of the PM’s “broken promise” to hold elections in 2009, which you presumably regard as a lie. But you simply can’t make such a statement with any credibility without providing hard evidence, especially for your claim of corruption. Show us the money trail, explain the shady deals. Otherwise this is the routine smear of a welded-on regime opponent.
I’m interested in your prediction that Bainimarama intends to stand for president. So who will be prime minister and head of the executive if he becomes head of state? To cite the threat of punishment for the actions of 2006 as a motivating force is ridiculous. I don’t believe Bainimarama is afraid of anyone after surviving the bullets and mortars of the 2000 mutiny.
Graham,
It is a sad day when as you suggest ‘I have to get used to ongoing military domination in Fiji.’ I am not sure that I will.
With regards to my belief that Bainimarama and Khaiyum are lying, cheating and corrupt individuals let me explain my reasoning.
The lying is easy to prove and is a matter of public order. You just have to look at Bainimarama’s statements over the past 6 years and see how many have been fulfilled.
One I think needs to be highlighted because he lied to your face and you just accepted it. When you interviewed him earlier this year he denied planning any coups before 2006 in answer to a story by Victor Lal and Russell Hunter. I point you to grubsheet 57.
Otto Limput in a comment directs you to the Truth for Fiji website where you can download letters and statements from various colonels confirming they resigned rather than help Bainimarama plan a coup. It proves Bainimarama lied to you on camera. Wisely you chose to edit it out of the broadcast version of the interview.
In Khaiyum’s case every time he talks about the Public Order Amendment Decree or the Essential Industries decree he lies. He lied to the Ministerial Contact Group when he said there were no restrictions on meetings. The Methodist Church have been waiting for over 6 weeks to hear back from the Police Commissioner about a meeting. The SDL party got the approval for a meeting after it was supposed to take place. OK Khaiyum did not lie they got permission but they could not hold their meeting.
Only today he has told another lie. “No discussions amongst Government to form a political party” They may not have reached a decision but they have been talking about it for years and they even have a list of potential candidates. As you yourself say regarding the elections “It beggars belief that the regime would embark on this process if it wasn’t intending to deliver an outcome.”
Cheating and corruption go hand in hand.
I can’t show you any concrete evidence because that requires names, dates and information which would clearly identify both myself and the people who got the documents. This being a military dictatorship I don’t want that to happen. You can take my word for it or not.
I have also heard many firsthand stories from members of the judiciary on interference. But as they were the ones actually involved to repeat those cases would get them in trouble. Though I think in the next month or so there will be some very revealing public statements about Khaiyum’s corrupt interference of the judiciary in Fiji.
We also have the well documented 200k given to Bainimarama as back pay. We also have the unwillingness of Bainimarama and Khaiyum to reveal their salaries even though it is direct contravention of Pillar 3 of the People’s Charter.
I have more than enough evidence to know that my belief “Bainimarama and Khaiyum are lying, cheating and corrupt individuals who will stop at nothing to keep control” is true.
The Presidency is a better option for Bainimarama. He does not like sitting in an office doing real work. He much prefers spending his time pressing the flesh and going on foreign travel which he will be able to do to his heart content as head of state. However, I imagine there will be an increase of executive powers for the President so he can use the military to keep the politicians in check without breaking the constitution.
I have no idea who will be PM. I don’t think it will be Khaiyum because he has no popularity or power base. I am sure though he will remain the power behind the throne.
I did not say Bainimarama was frightened of anyone. Though there are wildly differing statements as to his ‘bravery’ during the mutiny.
I said he could lose his immunities from prosecution if he lost power. Being President protects him from both losing an election and prosecution. It is one thing being brave under fire and quite another not to take sensible precautions to prevent a long prison term.
Ever since the coup this has been an issue for all the senior officers in the army. More recently it has become a major issue as they have seen numerous prosecutions for other soldiers involved in coups around the world and also the steps towards democracy means these issues need to be addressed with some urgency. It is not just Bainimarama who needs immunity but all his fellow officers. I know from talking to them they do not want to leave it to chance in an election. Bainimarama being appointed President before the elections gives them that security.
“Dictators lie”, I ask you for detailed evidence of corruption and this is what you come up with? A rag bag of old accusations and no detailed evidence at all?
Spare me the claims of Otto Limput. Because I think it’s the worst kept secret in Fiji that Otto Limput is actually Roko Ului, Ratu Tevita Mara, in another guise.
Now Mara fled from Fiji last year claiming he had detailed documentation that proved some of the things he and you are alleging. Where is it? A year later, we’re still waiting.
Frankly, it beggars belief that you underestimate the intelligence of the Fijian people so much that you would post this comment in response to a request for detailed evidence. It is not evidence but the same old spin.
You say you have evidence but can’t provide it for reasons of personal safety and I just have to take your word for it”. Yeah, right. I might be stupid but I’m not that stupid.
Frankly it beggars belief that you ignore the evidence proving Bainimarama lied to your face in an on camera interview. A segment you cut from the broadcast version to save your blushes. I note you glossed over that in your response. As you say Mara fled taking evidence with him and yet when he made it public you choose to ignore it.
“All dictators”, what on earth are you on about? Blushes? Cutting something from the interview? I’ll say it again. Produce the evidence on this and everything else you claim and you might be taken seriously. You would if you could but you can’t. So no-one, least of all me, is going to “take your word” for any it.