Grubsheet continues to be amazed that the Fijian media is overlooking easily the most significant political story now that the campaign period for the coming election has commenced – that Frank Bainimarama is back in a fight to the death against Sitiveni Rabuka for the hearts and minds of the Fijian people and the future direction of the nation.
Bainimarama himself, of course, can’t stand in the election because of the ban on anyone who has been convicted of a criminal offence that carries a maximum jail term of 12 months or more. (His one year jail sentence in 2024 for perverting the course of justice carried a maximum sentence of five years, though he was released after six months). Yet rest assured that he will be leading the fight against his old nemesis from behind the scenes of a new party. Make that “proposed party”, for the moment, pending the official registration.
That grouping was called FijiansFirst until the Supervisor of Elections, Ana Mataiciwa, rejected the name because it was too close to that of FijiFirst – the party which Bainimarama led to victory in two elections – in 2014 and 2018 – and that fell just short to the Coalition in 2022 even though it secured more votes than anyone else.
So now, Bainimarama and the man who continues to be his closest associate, Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, have chosen a new name – One Nation – which also happens to be the name of the ultra conservative party in Australia led by the maverick former fish-and-chip shop owner and longtime Senator, Pauline “Please Explain” Hanson.
Bainimarama and Khaiyum have developed a habit of purloining the names of other parties in the neighbourhood. FijiFirst was a direct copy of New Zealand First – the Kiwi equivalent of Australia’s One Nation, though with its leader, Winston Peters – unlike Pauline Hanson, so far at least – able to secure the balance of power that has made him the country’s long-serving Foreign Minister.
Now Bainimarama and Khaiyum have shamelessly copied Pauline Hanson and taken her party’s name, One Nation. At first, Grubsheet’s reaction was to emit a long, slow groan at yet another burst of unoriginality on Bai-Kai’s part. Yet on reflection, it makes a great deal of sense in the local context in which most Fijians won’t be aware that it is a direct steal, just as they accepted FijiFirst as home-grown.
Think about it.
- One nation is what Frank and Aiyaz have always stood for – equal opportunity for all Fijians through the common and equal citizenry, common identity and secular state they enshrined in the 2013 Constitution. It is a clear point of difference with Sitiveni Rabuka’s agenda to re-establish indigenous paramountcy and turn Fiji’s minorities into second class citizens. And it will make the coming election the mother of all contests that will determine the nation’s future for years to come.
- One Nation in Australia used to be regarded as something of a national joke – the shrill Pauline Hanson and her stunt of appearing in the Senate dressed in a burqa ridiculed and vilified. Yet off the back of Donald Trump‘s success in the United States and the defection to One Nation of the former deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce, it has begun to pose a direct threat to the Liberal-National Coalition, with record polling figures, a $A6-million war chest and a big by-election win in a seat (Farrer) that the Coalition had held for 70 years.
- Put simply, One Nation has momentum in Australia and Frank and Aiyaz will be hoping that One Nation also gains momentum in Fiji – enough to emerge in the coming weeks and months as the principal threat to Sitiveni Rabuka and his dysfunctional, corrupt and incompetent Coalition with the NFP and SODELPA. This includes two deputy prime ministers, Biman Prasad and Manoa Kamikamica, sidelined and facing trial for corruption – the spectacle of “walks of shame” to the courts dominating media coverage just when Rabuka needs clear air and a bout of collective amnesia on the part of the electorate about four years of “do nothing government” and a conga line of snouts at the trough.
One Nation senses the weakness of the Coalition even without the active participation of the two men behind it. Though if Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum is finally acquitted by the Chief Justice, Salesi Temo, in the judgment that he, and we, have been awaiting for seven months, nothing will prevent Khaiyum from standing in the election. Which would then pose the following question:
- Can Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum win at the head of One Nation with the active campaigning of Frank Bainimarama by his side? Once the notion would have been unthinkable. But four years of Rolex Rabuka’s rabble has left many Fijians pining for even a semblance of Khaiyum’s ability and intellect.
Then another question:
- Could Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum then do a deal with Inia Seruiratu for a One Nation-People First Coalition to govern together in a reprise of the “old gang” but different? (Assuming they can both get over the existing five per cent threshold). The very same people who got the biggest share of the vote in 2022 but fell short by just one vote on the floor of the parliament?
Right now, Frank and Aiyaz don’t want media coverage of any of this. One prominent journalist has told Grubsheet that when he asked whether Frank was the “main man” behind the new grouping, he was told he would be sued if he said so. Nice. Though it’s a threat so empty that it clearly should have been ignored.
So for the moment, the leaders of One Nation evidently appear to be those who were publicly identified as the leaders of FijiansFirst before it was disallowed – Faiyaz Koya, Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum’s closest lieutenant in FijiFirst, and Tupou Draunidalo, the former NFP President and serial party switcher.
As Grubsheet has already observed, both aren’t obvious foreman material. Could either of them knock off Sitiveni Rabuka? “Tell them they’re dreaming”, as the small-guy hero, Darryl Kerrigan, said in the movie The Castle. Which means that One Nation is either waiting to see if Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum can lead it ( yes, that’s the power Salesi Temo is wielding with his unconscionable delay in producing a verdict in Khaiyum’s case) or it will have to find someone charismatic from outside.
We will know a lot more when One Nation finally gets the green light from the Elections Office (assuming it gets the green light ) but Tupou Draunidalo is already flexing her political muscle by going after the hapless Lynda Tabuya over the debacle of the Coalition’s failed attempt to silence Alexandra Forwood and others on Facebook.
After all, the election campaign has officially begun even if One Nation is still awaiting the starter’s pistol itself.
Background stories from Grubsheet on Frank’s new party…
Go Frank!
Get these sex fiends out of office.
Lynda and Biman are two peas in the same pod. Their actions have proven how selfish, self-serving and dishonest they are. Outright liars.
The more they open their mouths the more we realize how stupid and dumb they are. To imagine that we voters aentrusted the running of this country to these jokers.
Biman gave us 15% vat that and he gave Fiji Water a seven year tax holiday in connivance with that bastard? Richard Naidu, and his side squeeze, Kirti Patel.
Let’s never forget Lynda was behind the ministers’ pay increase bill after contradicting two promises in the election campaign. She is both shallow and hollow. She has achieved nothing substantial, yet she fancies herself as Prime Minister material. What a joke. She Just knows how to dress up and give hollow speeches.
It’s good that we were rid of Biman. He’s finished, destroyed by his own greed and selfishness.
Now we need to get rid of Lynda as well as Rolex Rabuka. The PM is simply too old, senile and stupid to the country. Lynda is giving him the runaround.
Let’s kick the bastards out in the next election.
I just want to know how tax holidays are dished out. The first decision that the finance minister made and it still troubles me. Once we understand that we will understand what went wrong and why.
Naidu had a conflict of interest.
Should have never been part of the economic reform committee.
The reform never happened but his rich client got richer.
And Stanley and crew got a free ride to USA.
Media freedom. lol
As for Tabuya, she is a burnt toast.
Nothing but a filth on society.
She can go back to real time scamming.
Gone this election.
Fiji relies on overseas aid, overseas tourists, remittances from overseas.
Only overseas based journalists and investigative bloggers and Superwoman like Alex provide any decent news and critique. Victor Lal, Charlie Charters and Graham Davis.
Not to mention rugby players playing in overseas teams has lifted the game in Fiji.
Only decent kava is grown in Fiji, to get inebriated on and let everyone overseas do the work.
One Nation couldn’t hold a piss up in a brewery…stale bunch….stale agenda….
We want Frank and Aiyaz back.
Biman is going down for sure.
The interesting thing will be who he is going to take down with him.
This is so much fun.
Richard Naidu, you still representing Biman now? Kaila.
Where will One Nation have its appeal? Certainly not within the iTaukei community which make up around 65% of voters.
One Nation will end up largely splitting the Indofijian votes which have firmly consolidated behind Chaudhry, and thus end up Rabuka winning an absolute majority – which is the worst possible outcome that can happen, if the interests of the country are considered.
So, all these People First and One Nation parties are going to end up helping Rambo. ASK has been making one miscalculation after another- whether it was overestimating his chances at the 2022 elections, or giving away FijiFirst’s 26 seats to Rabuka by allowing the party to be deregistered, and now further splitting the opposition to help Rambo again.
I think you are forgetting Frank Bainimarama’s continuing popularity and the blow-back against Rabuka and his ministers for their incompetence and corruption. The standard of governance under the Coalition has been woeful and as the state of the economy worsens, even diehard iTaukei nationalists can see that cost-of-living pressures were less onerous under FijiFirst.
Chaudhry’s continuing problem is the lack of depth in Labour. It is all very well to have a vigorous octogenarian as leader but where is the talent around him? It is a one-man show to all intents and purposes and always has been.
The main priority for all of them is to get over the 5 per cent threshold. The notion of changing the electoral laws in the next seven months is a fantasy. So the big man/big woman factor under the d’Hondt system will be just as applicable this time.
Is Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum enough of a “big man” to carry One Nation over the line on his own? Almost certainly not. But Aiyaz with Frank by his side actively campaigning for him and their One Nation agenda? That might be different. The tragedy is that if they hadn’t had a hissy fit over losing last time and gone home with their bats and balls, they would have been a shoe-in this time from the opposition benches, assuming they could have kept FijiFirst intact. And they would have been far less vulnerable to prosecution because that would have been cast as being politically motivated against a sitting opposition.
Yes, it has been “one miscalculation after another”. The question is whether nostalgia for the relative stability and prosperity under Frank (They successfully steered the country through COVID, after all) is going to be enough for people to forgive their “miscalculations”. Because the Coalition’s record under Rabuka has been disastrous – one scandal after another and gross economic mismanagement that has placed Fiji in a far worse position than it was even at the time of COVID.
Rambo is vulnerable even over his gold Rolex. His refusal to disclose the source is going to haunt him all the way to election day. And Lynda Tabuya is a ticking time bomb who is an albatross around the government, with a record of lurid scandal that won’t survive the blowtorch of an election campaign. And then there is Manoa and Biman, whose trials for corruption are going to be emblematic of the Coalition’s record in government.
In summary, I think your analysis is premature. There has never been a threat to the iTaukei, the restoration of the GCC is showing little or no benefit and the position of most iTaukei is no better now than under FijiFirst and in fact, a lot worse, with the lease money from iTaukei land going not to them but the chiefs.
Rabuka is also labouring under the perception that the people of Cakaudrove are the principal beneficiaries of his rule and resentment in the West, in particular, is acute. We don’t know enough about the relative strength of the various parties because there is simply no opinion polling being done. But I think the notion that Rabuka is a shoe-in – which I once believed – is just plain wrong. He is highly vulnerable and if a week is a long time in politics – as the old saying goes – seven months is an eternity.
Rambo put Lynda into the information portfolio to transform the government’s messaging. Instead it is all over the place and we are currently witnessing some of the seething resentment against the Coalition on Facebook in relation to the failed attempt to silence Alex Forwood. The “fact of the matter” – as One Nation is bound to press home – is that they are both self-serving, incompetent, crooked duds who deserve to be shown the door come election day. And it doesn’t matter of you are iTaukei or a Bangladeshi import, the Coalition is one big fail.