Today’s Fiji Sun describes it as worst case scenarios – the Prime Minister speculating on what might happen if SODELPA wants to enforce its demand that he reinstate the new SODELPA leader, Aseri Radrodro, as Education Minister by withdrawing its support for the Coalition.
What he outlines are, in fact, best case scenarios because the current political uncertainty and shenanigans at the top of government are having a dire impact on standards of governance and national confidence and this impasse must be broken in the national interest.
Sitiveni Rabuka raises the intriguing prospect of a snap election. This isn’t possible under the Constitution until the 18-month point into a new government. That means a snap election can’t officially be held until the end of June. And it can only come AFTER A motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister fails and after a motion for the dissolution of parliament is moved by the Leader of the Opposition supported by at least two thirds of the parliament. (See our subsequent posting on the precise constitutional position).
The other alternative the Prime Minister raises is more likely – SODELPA calling a vote of no confidence in Sitiveni Rabuka himself – something any MP can do at any time but can’t do again for another six months if that motion fails. If it succeeds – as the PM indicates – then the Coalition loses its majority and there is a change of government, which would make Inia Seruiratu Prime Minister with the support of Aseri Radrodro and his two fellow MPs, including Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum‘s father-in-law, the outgoing SODELPA leader, “Blinky Bill” Gavoka.
There is actually nothing to stop Inia Seruiratu himself from bringing on a no confidence motion in the Prime Minister and prevailing with SODELPA’s support, which is why there has been speculation that this could happen in the parliament as early as today. Certainly the FijiFirst parliamentary leader has been looking very cheerful in recent days ( see the photo below with Filimoni Vosarogo) so who knows?
Sitiveni Rabuka is laying out these scenarios in the media to scare the bejesus out of everyone – to try to get SODELPA to back off and embrace his insistence that the Prime Minister and the Prime Minister alone chooses his cabinet. But if that doesn’t happen, something clearly has to give – either a no-confidence motion now or a snap election come late June or some other devious move known only to the master tactician – the “Snake”.
A no-confidence motion against him could put Sitiveni Rabuka on the opposition benches as soon as a vote in the parliament is held. A snap election would almost certainly mean a polarisation of the electorate around the People’s Alliance and FijiFirst that would almost certainly wipe out SODELPA and the NFP as they fail to meet the 5 per cent threshold.
So which do you think Sitiveni Rabuka would prefer? Clearly in the short term, for any no confidence motion to fail or he loses office. But after June, maybe a no confidence motion that also fails but because it is at the 18 month point of the government, giving the Opposition leader the ability to move a successful motion for the dissolution of parliament and fresh elections.
If he wins those, that would get both SODELPA and the NFP off his back. Provided, of course, the electorate hasn’t become so disillusioned that there’s a stampede from the PAP back into the arms of FijiFirst.
There’s no doubt this is all great entertainment for those with a taste for political intrigue but unfortunately the instability in government is damaging public and investor confidence and having a dire effect on the national mood. So whatever happens, the current situation cannot continue.
Public sentiment is turning on SODELPA and especially Aseri Radrodro – the insubordinate, disobedient wife basher and love rat who with his patron, the Qaranivalu, is creating a great deal of trouble. Yesterday’s headlines about Radrodro being a “party man” have triggered a great deal of mirth.
He’s a party man, alright, and a brutal one at that. He partied like no tomorrow with Lynda Tabuya in Room 233 of the Windsor Hotel in Melbourne while his wife slept in a nearby room. Just what we need at the top of government, eh Fiji?
Poor Biman Prasad. Think of what awaits him in a “worst case”/ best case scenario. A motion of no confidence would put him in opposition and a snap election would propel him and his NFP colleagues into the political wilderness. Good luck, as we used to say in the old days. With the betrayal of his promise to the electorate to be the honest broker in government, Baimann is a dead politician walking. And it is entirely self-inflicted (see previous posting).
Bizarrely, the Fiji Times is more interested in SODELPA Constitution than the nation’s constitution. Who on earth gives a damn at this stage of the proceedings?
Crickey! “Bring it on!” Is Fred finally going to write about politics? No such luck. More sport as usual. The Fiji Times Editor in Chief is a total waste of space and newsprint.
Inia Seruiratu looking like a man without a care in the world. One way or another, it is all going his way. And it might just suit Filimoni Vosarogo too if he emerges from the current car crash as a PAP leadership candidate. (Photo: Fiji Times)
Epeli Rabua of Suva is a very wise man. His letter in today’s Fiji Sun is spot on.
Brutus. A party man, alright. Partying in the middle of the night and having “brutal” sex with someone else’s wife while his wife sleeps in a nearby room. All class.
Ashamed says
GD good morning . What’s interesting is Rabuka’s adamant to keep Radrodro out of Cabinet. What’s the issue there when he has got the Minister for Bonking & weed to keep her Cabinet position despite being found guilty that the two had a tax payer funded sexual tryst in Melbourne last year?
It seems Rabuka by all accounts of fairness is being personal at the expense of a national elections ! He should look around him and ask himself how many of his current PAP members will retain their seat in the next elections ? It’s more likely that with their non performance leave alone the many scandals Rabuka’s PAP has been plagued with, that their Party will bleed badly!
Secondly, it seems more likely that the former Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama would be able to contest elections again, and this time Frank knows how much Aiyaz Khaiyum is detested! So he will lead FFP without ASK. He will likely choose a more favorable AG, perhaps the Tui Nakabea’s son Hon Rt Joe Nalawa, who is a FFP candidate to appease to the I-Taukei and Hindu voters!
Lastly, with the influential Turaga na Qaranivalu alongside Sodelpa again, remember it was his party all along which he had established as SDL and where the late PM Qarase asked to be a member, there will definitely be a shift in the political landscape and Rabuka with the Turaga Bale na Tui Cakau well aware of the influence of the Turaga Qaranivalu! Therefore, the suggestions that Sodelpa may not retain its parliamentary presence is most definitely going to be a myth!
Rabuka’s CBM block and his band of merry makers who make up most of the top positions in Govt right now will again be tested in a provincial based battle of the Notth versus Viti Levu! The Turaga na Tui Tavua is a Sodelpa man along with his people! Nadi will be split between PAP and Sodelpa, and Lautoka likewise. Ba too is likely to be split between Labor Party, Sodelpa and FFP!
A snap elections or an early elections, Rabuka won’t be back !
Lastly GD, his party is currently up in arms with him. The Honorable Speaker and Turaga na Tui Cakau is most unhappy with Rabuka and so is a good majority of the PAP members because of Rabuka’s obvious inability to lead with wisdom. The allowance for Japan to dump nuclear waste into the Pacific, the voting with Israel immediately losing a threat to the lives of Fijian peace keepers, his inability to suspend his many Ministers being investigated by FICAC as well as his inability to address his lover the Bonking & Weed Queen, makes it certain that his short lived leadership is going to end again in political oblivion! His attitude from 1999 which led to his demise is still there! Hard and hot hearted! Stubborn and willing only to listen to himself alone makes him a liability to PAP!
PAP can defuse the situation by calling for its own party’s dismissal of its PM and opt for a younger more engaging PM from within its ranks ! One that doesn’t say the Sodelpa Management Board does not have any say! And a day later admits as you’ve drawn out GD in the Fiji Sun today, that the Management Board of Sodelpa can withdraw the party from being a Coalition Member leaving Blinky Bill and Vasu likewise in political oblivion!
Interesting times ahead GD and all because we have a bunch of leaders with so much baggage that it would be better that the Fiji Military Forces returns to lead Fiji for a while . At least for 10 years until all these old politicians are extinct and we have fresh blood!
Cheers GD and thank you for allowing thoughts on this very important national developments !
Seeking clarification says
I suppose snap elections can only be held after an early dissolution of parliament.
The constitution says early dissolution can take place but only after a specific set of events happens first. These include a vote of no confidence against the PM having already taken place and more importantly, the motion to dissolve parliament early can only be made by the leader of the opposition party. The PM cannot move to dissolve parliament. He/she can but only six months before the end of the full parliamentary term. That’s some time away. Dissolving parliament to have early snap elections may be not as straight forward as many think. This is my layman’s reading of the constitution provisions so happy to stand corrected by a constitutional expert.
Graham Davis says
I have just posted a second article on the precise constitutional provision. Hope this clarifies things for you.
Joshua says
“The state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else.”
From “The Law “ by Fredrick Bastiat
That fiction has been the downfall of government in Fiji since independence.
We need a new direction: small govt whose sole purpose is to implement laws. The rest is left to individuals using their faculties to make a living for themselves.
No more running to government, Self help is the key word.
All the current parties in parliament have a big-government approach to things.
It’s costing the country, holding it back.
That’s why the ship of state is wallowing in a sea of repeated crisis.
Send these current politicians back to their village to plant cassava to feed themselves snd their families.
We need fresh elections for a fresh approach.
Tinai says
True.
Tinai says
Good morning GD -the lion that never sleeps.
I was just about to write GOOD LUCK which our gen all still use, when you wrote “good luck as we used to say in the old day” ha.
Life is indeed passing by. Middle aged
My husband mentioned your dad was a pastor. Something you and he have in common.
The rest -a mess and stressful as I head to “paradise”.
Have a good day GD.
Raymond says
SODELPA IS SO SCREWED UP BY VIPERS THAT THEY INDIVIDUALLY CAN NOT SEE THAT THEY ARE VIPERS THEMSELVES
Tuba says
PM says, “and we just switch over.”
Just switch over!
No regard for what they have done to get the country here.
Dumbtards.
No self worth and self respect.
No idea how to run a village canteen leave alone a government.
All Minister’s going wild. They have their own Facebook pages as if they are their own captains of the boat.
Rabuka is gone.
He held no credibility.
He was never a leader.
And whoever was praising him and these swines in Coalition must hang their heads in shame. These lot are thugs. No moral compass.
Let them do one thing.
Let them go and womanise and “just do adultery” because that’s what they good at.
Get out of the August House now.
Fijians have no confidence in this government.
Meme J says
Good morning Graham
Isn’t this a real mess indeed.
A definite need for Inia to stand up and lead the opposition well. We have no choice but look at the best interest of the country.
We have been here before.
Rabuka has led us all in the wild and back so a good lesson for the young ones who didn’t understand how important national peace, unity, and tactful leadership is.
Bainimarama must have come across as rude and ruthless but now we know why. It is because half of the Fiji population runs without a brain thinking the kava sessions, tiktoks, village gossip, and extreme i-taukei racism will save them.
Like it or not, Bainimarama knew not to slaken the dali or rope because he was adamant he wasn’t going to lose this country to these extremist hooligans.
Young Fijians need to form a party of respected people and leaders. Be politically savvy but lead with integrity and discipline. That’s all everyone asks for. Today, Fiji is a good example of how poor leadership fails a nation.
Nfp voter says
A weak leader equates to a weak government and then weak performance.
Rabuka is a weak leader. He cant seen to let go off the suckle to minister for Weed n Bonking and that domino effect trickles down to the Sodelpa members.
Rabuka has shown again that he’s self serving and nothing else. Sucking Fiji dry of its brightest minds once again after 1987.
80000 left and many more on the way. Theres is no best case scenario for Fiji anymore.
Its the question of how worse can it get?
Karma is a bitch says
Karma is a bitch Rabuka.
You got dished your own medicine.
Exactly what you deserved.
Every tear drop of the Fiji-indians of the 1987 era will live with you till that last day.
Today, we sit back and watch your own destroy you.
Couldn’t be sweeter.
Our homes were destroyed in the 1987 coups in Labasa.
My parents were poor farmers.
We were displaced for many years after that.
I watched you growing up.
Partying, driving in your fancy government cars, taking in the glory while the poor suffered. The i-taukei suffered equally.
When I read all this GD, it reminds me of all the brutality that I saw growing up. Women and kids suffering. Rabuka womanising. No difference of what Tabuya and Aseri are doing today. It is a cycle of abuse and power.
Today is a good day.
Of good silent tears.
It’s not revenge.
It’s karma.
#forfijieverfiji
Talanoa. says
Well said Karma is a bitch. The pain, hurt, emotional abuse and trauma Fiji Indians faced after 1987 including 2000 will be felt by extremist Sitiveni Rabuka, Ratu Inoke Kububola and other surviving members of racisit Tauketi Movement.
Ashamed says
Rabuka has been so blind that he pushed and pushed for the CBM block until it is now evident to everyone ! They make the noise on social media and scream their lungs out at anyone and everyone ! Pushing the Eitou Ma and Vanua Levu tu ga rhetorics !
To the extent that Rabuka has repeatedly tried to change Eseromi Turaga the AG and replace him with his nephew Filimoni Vosarogo . Well GD, Rabuka exposed his hands there ! Lomaiviti from where the Hon Eseromi hails from has observed with interest everything that’s happening ! So Rabuka can forget any support from Lomaiviti that’s part of the Kubuna confederacy !
Toso tiko Rabuka! You’ll lose big time so call the elections now ! It’s about time Fiji is rid of you and your no direction government !