Two months after the Minister for Finance, Biman Prasad, talked up the economy with a rosy prediction of the state of the nation’s prospects comes a warning from the Reserve Bank Governor, Ariff Ali, that challenging times lie ahead. Which is it, fellas? You can’t maintain economic confidence with two separate narratives about the country’s economic outlook.
There has been a great deal of hype from the Coalition government about the economy, just as there was from FijiFirst. But you can’t admit to losing 50,000 Fijians to emigration in the past two years – as Biman’s Permanent Secretary, Shiri Gounder, has done – without a devastating effect on the nation’s finances. As Grubsheet reported last week, a senior government figure puts the real level of departures at closer to 80,000. So it is no surprise to us that the Reserve Bank Governor isn’t sharing Biman Prasad’s excitement about his own economic projections.
If it is true that things are not as good as we are being led to believe, can somebody please explain the following: Why did the Coalition agree to the recommendation by the Chair of its Fiscal Review Committee, Richard Naidu, to give his company’s billionaire clients, Fiji Water, a seven year tax holiday? And why did the government allow a bunch of Christian pilgrims assisted by the Minister for Tourism, “Blinky Bill” Gavoka, to rack up a huge debt for a Fiji Airways charter to Israel when it seems that debt is simply too large to repay?
We need answers to both of these questions now that it is becoming clear that the country is facing challenging economic times. We are being deprived of the facts far too often but when it comes to the state of the economy, we deserve to be told the truth.
We have certainly not heard from Biman Prasad what Arrif Ali is saying in this startling statement today, which indicates that things are not as rosy as they have been portrayed and that a period of severe belt tightening may lie ahead. And it is about time that we get those facts rather than the Coalition’s chronic spin.
Richard Naidu is MIA or has he dissolved in Fiji Water.
I cant believe I voted for these bunch of idiots.
Biman Prasad’s glaring incompetence and weakness as NFP leader and finance minister is leading the country down this path. The man is obsessed with giving meaningless and boring speeches at events and is busy promoting his friends and family to key positions while NFP’s coalition partners target minority groups, ride roughshod over the rule of law and systematically erode investor confidence.
The finance minister is haunted by the ghost of Aiyaz Sayed Khaiyum and, it is said, flies into a fit of rage at the mere mention of the name. Just look at his hysterical response to the former economy minister’s recent pointed criticism of government’s economic policies, which totally lacked the poise, class and intelligence shown by Manoa Kamikamica on the same issue.
Of the 5 NFP ministers, Pio Tikoduadua is the only one who retains some clout in the community, but even he cannot rescue the party from total decimation at the next elections, whenever they are called. The finance minister meanwhile is struggling to escape the shadow of ‘He Who Must not be Named.’
Fiji has (over)priced its golden goose, tourism, and it is time that the visitors get a fair deal. Other countries offer better prospects, inclusive of a law and order situation, and a cheaper price so naturally Fiji’s tourism industry will suffer. Tourism will only generate economic growth in 2024 if it beats numbers of 2023. Can this be achieved? Maybe the academics in-charge, the academics providing advice and the now very silent journalist-lawyer have answers.
Secondly, the investment in any country is directly linked to the political and economic stability provided. We can have summits and forums but the investment-supportive policy hollowness and constant bickering amongst the policy-makers doesn’t fill an investor with confidence. In fact the only type of investors who will be highly motivated under this climate are the ones who need to be behind bars (case-in-point the tonnes of meth impounded amongst the other many tonnes not caught or already re-routed). A country in which the perpetrators of the ultimate crime of treason are celebrated deserves nothing less.
Thirdly, the workplace ethnic-cleansing and stifling of opportunities for the non-indigenous Fijians will bite the government in the bum. The mighty exodus is far from over. Wait for the Qoliqoli Bill (updated Surfing Act) and fresh attempts to bring back 1997 Constitution that should cement the outflow of more and more skilled and semi-skilled moderates (mostly non-indigenous).
Hop on Fiji….the Banana Republic train is just gaining momentum. Steve may just take ROTFI to where he couldn’t after 1987, Zimbabwe!!!
It seems you jump on every little tit bit sometimes without much thought going into it.
Your writings at times are starting to resemble a supermarket tabloid all doom and gloom. Yes the current Government has made mistakes but they have restored freedom and people are free. Rest they will figure it out during their remaining term and if people are not satisfied they have the right to vote them out.
So that you understand, central banks are independent of Governments in a free market economy. Central banks concentrate on macro indicators and macro policy and at they look ahead for trends and headwinds on these indicators and then make an assessment which can be wrong.
Look at how many times the US Chair of Federal Reserve has been on the wrong side of an assessment. Greenspan was way off and did not see the looming subprime meltdown which caused economic meltdown in 2008-2009.
Reserve Banks do not normally see things at a micro level and the level of investment activity that are in the pipeline that the Government can see at the relevant Ministry.
No Government in a free enterprise economy will ever talk negatively about the current economic situation unless off course things are really bad. Remember the so called Bainimarama boom Aiyaz always talked about?, he never talked down the economy.
Things in Fiji from an economic point of view are relatively robust right now so Biman has every right to talk highly and be positive on the economy.
Therefore your piece is totally useless read but I have to comment on it and bring g this to your attention. Please don’t turn into a keyboard warrior with everything is all doom and gloom.
A man with your journalist experience should be more analytical and write on issues of more importance then to wiggle about what the Reserve Bank Governor has said and what the Finance Minister is saying. At the end of the day actual economic data will tell who is wrong and who is right.
Really Graham ???
Rajiv, you didn’t perchance win Lynda’s raffle and the Jack Daniels?
“They have restored freedom and the people are free?” Have another swig, old chap. They have also re-introduced a level of racism that is fuelling the current exodus from Fiji and demolishing its tax base.
The point that the Reserve Governor is making is that the “relatively robust” conditions to which you refer are over. This year is going to be a lot tougher. So it isn’t me who is spreading doom and gloom. It is the head of the central bank.
The point I was making is that the conditions he outlines are the opposite of the message that has been coming from Biman Prasad. So which is it? Which is the more credible account of what is actually happening? The “independent” central banker or the politician desperate to spin a narrative for his own purposes?
It is a reasonable point to make and the accusation of me being “tabloid” by making it is absurd. As you know, I used to be in the business of spin. But I am not half as good at it as you are. Overly defensive tosh.
Lol. What planet are you living on bro. Certainly not this one!
Twin policy of RBF is to maintain interest rates to acceptable levels of 3-4% but it’s now 5.1% and ringing alarm bells mainly due to Biman’s ill conceived decision of increasing VAT leading to increase in prices of goods and services and now its after effect. The other policy of RBF is maintain healthy foreign reserves which is almost under pressure due to rising costs of imports due to fuel price rise volatility. Fiji economy projections doesn’t look good at all with low foreign direct investment and government riddled with corruption, Ministers sex scandal, rife in drugs, racism, nepotism in appointment of failed candidates and political appointments to statutory positions and boards, not to mention exodus of skilled workers.
Oh wow always good at criticism but not good at taking one.
I never agreed with Aiyaz but he once called you a keyboard warrior and that I agree with.
Do you have any evidence of a direct relationship to the migration of people to the coalition Government?
Look around migration was always there and has accelerated since the pandemic as demand for human capital by well developed economies who have relaxed immigration laws to fill their human resource needs therefore making it easier for people in less developed economies to migrate.
And yes you were in the business of spinning and was good at aiding and abetting a regime who pushed down a flawed constitution that is now the law of the land, guess you must be really proud of that association.
I happily take criticism. What you don’t like is not being able to press your own criticism home without a response.
Blind Freddy can see that the Coalition government’s racial bias is triggering a stampede for the door in Fiji. I get messages all the time from people who say it has been the final straw for them to give up on the country.
And, yes, I am proud of what I did in Fiji. Much of what the FijiFirst government did was positive, especially in its early years, including free schooling for the first time in Fiji.
And I have no problem with the 2013 Constitution. Its provision for a common and equal citizenry, a common identity and a secular state levelled the playing field in Fiji. And while no constitution is perfect, the current one is worth defending.
Once an American company gets a tax free holiday the most important question for local businesses is why should they pay tax? We don’t earn billions, so what’s the point in taxing us and not taxing the company that is making billions. I am not a maths professor but I can tell you the economy would do better by taxing a billionaire 20% of income rather than a shop on Cumming Street 20% of its income. This point should be understood by government. The bigger the income the more tax dollars you should get.
These guys have no plans or policies in place to take the economy forward. The biggest challenge they have to deal with is the significant loss of skilled labor and the over reliance on the tourism industry