Why were two of the four remaining NFP MPs – Defence Minister Pio Tikoduadua and Minister for Women, Children and Social Protection Sashi Kiran – so glaringly absent from the party’s annual convention on Saturday?
Rumours sweeping political circles say both of them are about to leave the NFP and join the People’s Alliance. Which if true, tells us that neither expect the NFP to make the 5 per cent threshold at the coming election and, indeed, their very defections set the seal on the party’s fate.
There was no reason either of them couldn’t be there on the one day of the year when hundreds of NFP supporters gathered at the Jai Narayan College in Suva. Tikoduadua’s South Pacific Defence Minister’s meeting in Nadi had ended and Sashi Kiran was attending various engagements throughout the week. All of which makes these reports credible and has the political establishment buzzing about the potential consequences.
Assuming it is true, Pio and Sashi are clearly jumping ship to save their political careers, with the NFP leader, Biman Prasad, before the courts on trial for corruption and the party’s stocks at an all time low. There’s intense community dissatisfaction that the NFP has failed to temper the extremism and chaos of the Coalition’s rule and a backlash against the party is inevitable.
But both Tikoduadua and Kiran are riding high, generally regarded as competent ministers in their respective portfolios. So they may be rats leaving a sinking ship but they are clearly rats with a keen sense of the own survival.
In the case of Sashi Kiran, the reports that she will join the PAP are even more surprising because she had been letting it be known that she was contemplating leaving politics altogether. Yet the lure of a continuing ministerial salary and the relative security of joining the majority Coalition party looks as if it has persuaded her to change her mind.
What is this all going to mean? Clearly disaster for the NFP – two of its four remaining MPs after the death of Agni Deo Singh so certain of the party’s defeat that they are voting with their feet. It is a blow from which the NFP will be reeling and which has the potential to finally put it on the mat, down for the count in a knock out.
For the PAP and Sitiveni Rabuka, the rumoured defections would clearly be a triumph. It would make it much more likely that the Prime Minister gets the numbers in the parliament to deliver the new constitution the government wants in place by Christmas.
It is two votes the PAP wouldn’t be getting otherwise because Biman Prasad has already made it clear that the NFP won’t be supporting any move to delay the election (see below). Oh really? How are the votes of its two remaining MPs going to stop anything? That’s how much of a catastrophe this would be.
Pio Tikoduadua and Sashi Kiran are proving that principle in politics, even for the most high-minded individuals, isn’t as important as survival. It’s about getting with the strength to secure their political futures and the strength – as things stand, at least – is with Rabuka and the PAP.
As things stand too, Biman Prasad looks like he’ll be the only one of the four still standing come election day, if still standing is being tried for corruption. He has confirmed what Lenora Qereqeretabua has been telling friends – that she doesn’t intend to stand again and will be looking for a regional role.
Grubsheet has always assumed that if anyone was going to defect from the NFP, it might have been Lenora because of her success as Assistant Minister for Foreign Affairs and Deputy Speaker in the Parliament. But no. It seems she isn’t jumping ship to another party, she’s jumping from politics altogether, which with her obvious talents is a loss for the nation even if she personally lands on her feet elsewhere.
All in all, if the Tikoduadua and Kiran defections are confirmed, it will be a huge win for Rolex Rambo and a calamity for the NFP, which will be going into this election in the worst possible state.
Even its 17 new fresh-faced MPs aren’t going to help. Why? Because they are relative unknowns and under the d’Hondt system – presuming the election is held on schedule – it is the big names that count. And the NFP will have lost not one but two of them, leaving behind just one big name facing the prospect of a jail sentence.
It doesn’t get any worse.
______________________
From this…
To this?
Good luck.
__________________
In the meantime, Savenaca Narube keeps up the pressure.
Parliament begins discussing the government’s (amended) draft constitution today.
Pio and Sashi are not rats jumping the ship. They are merely jumping or dumping the rat, Baiman Prasad. Baiman is the rat in all this. A failed leader whose party is imploding around him.
In his lust for power, Baiman betrayed both Sashi and Pio. And Lenora as well. First, he failed to negotiate full ministerial portfolios for his two female MPs. This is because he was too focused on securing his finance and deputy prime minister positions and willing to forgo full portfolios for Sashi and Lenora.
Then he betrayed Pio by refusing to resign after he was charged and giving him the leadership of the party. This denied Pio and NFP the deputy prime minister’s position.
In all this the NFP board supported Biman. Their priority was Baiman and only Biman. Not the party or the other party members. It was blind and loyalty to Baiman. So Sashi, Lenora and Pio don’t owe any loyalty to Baiman or to the NFP. Why should they, when they were betrayed by Baiman and by NFP.
I can confirm that Pio is leaving the NFP, not sure about Sashi though. With the way politicians jump ship after every election, it is a credit to NFP that they were able to retain Lenora and Pio for two elections.
The one thing Biman did that Pio and Lenora failed to do the past 8 years was integrate themselves within the party. The party obviously will support the person who is most present in the party which happens to be Biman.
If Sashi and Pio don’t vote according to the party directive regarding the Constitution amendments, they will be fired and lose their seats which in turn means losing their cabinet positions. And ultimately, their voter base, which expects them to vote against PAP and Rabuka in the first place. So they are in a lose lose situation either way.
And with all the talk about youth representation in parliament at least NFP is the first party (and hopefully not the last) to put the money where their mouth is with announcing quite a few young candidates, which even Labour and Unity have failed to do, with them picking up the leftovers and past candidates of other parties.
The new deputy leader Dr Shakeel is quite liked and popular in the west among all races, which will pull some of the FijiFirst votes into NFP. The west is where the elections will be won, with the division being a FijiFirst stronghold in past elections, getting more votes in the west than in Suva. And it seems NFP is targeting the Indo-Fijian votes there by announcing quite a few western Indo-Fijian candidates.
I heard from party insiders that both Sashi and Lenora were disgusted by Biman’s behavior towards Mrs Taniguchi. The way he traumatized the poor lady with his unwanted advances. I know for a fact that Sashi and Lenora were also appalled by Biman’s appointment of Kirti Patel to the fiscal review committee and the tertiary education board because they know she wasn’t qualified and something wasn’t right. In fact, Biman also tried to bulldoze Kirti Patel on the board of the Unit Trust but she was kicked out by the governor of the reserve bank. From what some people have posted on this blog, it seems that the National Federation party board looked the other way . All these shenanigans seem to have caught up with Biman and the NFP.
This all really depends on if Biman gets convicted or not. If he does, Pio and Sashi will have made the right decision. But if he doesn’t, Biman and NFP will carry that momentum along with voting against PAP and Rabuka into elections.
Surprisingly, Lenora has come out looking the best with her reportedly turning away all parties saying that if she does run if would be only with NFP.
Honestly, Pio is the only loss for NFP. Sashi really has been invisible and not on the radar of many Indo-Fijians. Votes wise, both combined got almost 4000 votes last elections while Lenora matched their total herself. So the loss for NFP is essentially 8000 votes but 4000 votes will be going to PAP which NFP weren’t competing with anyway.
With the new proposed candidates, the Indo-Fijian candidates from the west are probably targeting the 90,000 given to FijiFirst last election, of which 61,000 went to Frank, 11,000 to Khaiyum, and 3,500 to Bala. That’s 75,000 votes from 3 candidates alone. Bai can’t run, Kai is on the fence, and Bala is finished after the Sangam debacle. If NFP can capture 10% of that western voter base, they will have made up the loss from Pio, Sashi and Lenora.
NFP is basically gambling on the numbers game. There are 700,000 registered voters. Assuming 70% turnout, that makes 350,000 i-Taukei voters and 150,000 Indo-Fijian voters. If NFP captures 10% of both demographics, they will easily survive with 50,000 votes. If they can get 20% of Indo-Fijian and 5% of i-Taukei votes they will achieve the same number of votes. Numbers wise, NFP is safe, only if Biman is able to contest.
Before the Biman FICAC case, it was rumoured that the former President Katonivere was going to fight under the NFP banner, and the current whispers are that Ratu Tevita Mara is thinking of contesting the upcoming elections, and that he won’t be doing it leading SODELPA and isn’t looking to create his own party. Imagine the son of Ratu Mara leading the party that was his father’s biggest thorn and had defeated him twice.
That certainly isn’t going to happen, according to my own information.
I see NFP getting votes in the range of 20k to 40k. Enough to retain seats in Parliament but not enough to get double digit seats to become the majority opposition. This election depends on whether PAP can get 28 seats on their own and whether Parliament will remain occupied by the same 3 or 4 parties of PAP, NFP, SODELPA, and FijiFirst the sequel aka One Nation or Labour and Unity being able to break into Parliament?
The i-Taukei vote will be splintered with the number of parties vying for their votes so the way the Indo-Fijians swing will at most determine the majority opposition, and in the unlikeliest of scenarios a prospective overall majority but not enough to form government outright for Labour or NFP.
I fear whoever One Nation puts up as their leader will not be enough even with Bainimarama backing them.
Alarm bells are ringing now Graham. With the death of Isoa Kuridrani and the impending court decision of Biman’s case, parliament could be left with 52 members. Which means that only 35 votes will be needed to pass any constitutional reforms. With the 21 votes from PAP, 3 from SODELPA, and 11 from the former FijiFirst members, they will have the 35 votes to pass any changes with the only hope of blocking them being a no vote at the referendum.
Who knew that the fate of the nation would lie in Biman’s hands haha. Let’s pray that Richard Naidu can pull the cat out of the hat for his client or pray that Magistrate Yogesh Prasad will deliver the verdict which will free Biman, which should happen given the current evidence, or lack thereof presented by FICAC in this rollercoaster of a case. Oh Alex and Victor, hindsight really is a wonderful and dangerous thing.
So what I’m getting is that charge Biman = loses seat = enough votes to pass constitutional reforms without NFP.
Which means that Biman being charged is a sure bet. Unless, of course, the judiciary is the staple of independence and free of influence that it definitely is. Not that I am in any way insinuating that it isn’t.
I think Biman can still vote as he is still in Parliment.
However, with the latest new of Pio wanting to jump ship and Sashi,either way it seems Rabuka will have majority.
Fiji Sun report confirms the obvious. Lenora votes with her feet. No confidence in the party or the party leader. Biman has made her quit politics.
Qereqeretabua unlikely to seek another term: Prasad
Deputy Speaker Lenora Qereqeretabua is unlikely to contest the coming general election hinting she wants to leave politics.
This was according to National Federation Party (NFP) leader Biman Prasad, who said the party would respect Ms Qereqeretabua’s decision, while two other senior NFP figures in Pio Tikoduadua and Sashi Kiran were still considering whether they would contest.
“Qereqeretabua has said that she is unlikely to contest the election. She wants to quit politics, and the party will respect that,” he said.
Lenora is quitting because of her son-in-law’s drug troubles.
Sashi is flip flopping on her decision to run or not and which party to join.
And most surprising is Pio choosing to join PAP instead of retiring. With his many health issues as well as his daughter’s recovery and future adjustment to her permanent injuries, he had the most reasons to call it quits.
Excluding youth members, Parliament should have minimum required assets for different age groups in order to become and MP. Most of the members of parliament on both sides are basically beggars with suits, living pay check to pay check.
I know of many former Indo-Fijian FijiFirst MPs asking for loans and more than half of the PAP members of parliament had their campaigns sponsored by Lynda. The identities of those individuals are clear as day as those who voted for salary increases on both sides of the house.
And with the blatant comments from Charan declaring that he would personally fund the PAP election campaign along with the proposed donor changes for parties, Fiji is about to be put up for a fire sale to the wealthy businesses in this country.
Fiji politics is so sad at the moment it looks like most of the politicians enter politics to die while being in parliament.Looking at today’s secession in parliament all iam thinking is who is next as they all sadly look old and worn out and such is the future of Fiji.
As much as they can jump party to party and justify their existence they all will be gone from the face of this earth and a change in constitution is not going to mean anything to most of them in parliament as they are about to expire soon one by one.
The rush to change the constitution is only to fool the itaukei to vote PAP but not everyone can be fooled as the struggle on the ground is real and a change in constitution is not going to improve the economy or cost of living.
Isa Viti. Sad state of affairs.
This video is a gem: https://youtu.be/cj7ATdjWHOk
Ms Sorry competent?
Pull the other one GD.
Guess you have been out of Fiji a while na?
Ya. Sorry, eh?
Rather than helping Rambo by justifying Sashi and Pio’s rumored defection to PAP, Grubsheet should be asking the duo these questions via this article?
– Can Sashi realistically hope to have better election prospects in an ultra ethnonationalist party, having received nearly all of her votes from Indofijians from the Westen division in the last election ?
– Pio has always masqueraded as a champion of multiracialism. How can he reconcile this by joining a radical, ethnonationalist party? Pio has always been seen as a principled person- is he willing to prove to everyone that that was for show only?
He is deeply respected for having refused to succumb to Sayed Khaiyum’s dictatorship and leave his ministerial position. Will he be able to reconcile his moderate views with those of hardcore racists like Tuisawau and Rabuka, both of whom hold leadership roles in PAP?