To all intents and purposes, Fiji is already a beggar nation dependent on foreign aid and remittances from the diaspora, which are now the country’s second biggest revenue earner after tourism.
We have a shrinking population and a shrinking tax base. Yet having already lived beyond our means for years, the current government engaged in a orgy of spending when it won power just over three years ago instead of heeding advice to tighten its belt.
Incredibly, the national debt has climbed to $10.9-billion under the Coalition from the $9.5- billion it inherited from FijiFirst. And the 25,000 civil servants under the last government has ballooned to more than 30,000 as the Coalition parties reward their supporters, friends and family members with jobs on the public teat.
At the same time as profligate spending has reached an all-time high, the government has prioritised tax breaks for billionaires, in the case of the scandalous seven year tax holiday for Fiji Water, and punished ordinary wage and salary earners with an increase in VAT to 15 per cent on a range of items that once carried a rate of 9 per cent.
Our politicians have been the worst at putting their hands in the till – having awarded themselves pay rises of an average 138 per cent plus a range of benefits that include the right to import tax free vehicles. This reckless self-interest on the part of our elected representatives when the rest of the country struggles with cost of living pressures is set to trigger a monumental backlash at the coming election.
Even in good times, it would be pay-back time at the polls for the Coalition’s scandalous mismanagement of the nation’s finances. But Fiji now faces a major economic downturn because of Donald Trump‘s war against Iran that our politicians didn’t see coming and won’t be able to escape.
The sight of burning oil tankers is sending panic through financial markets and is already pushing up the cost of fuel throughout the world. And as prices at the pump escalate, so too is the cost of everything else, with projected spikes in inflation and warnings of a global recession.
Even major economies are about to do it tough. But for a small island state like Fiji totally dependent on imported fuel, the outlook is even more grim. And the tragedy is that the Coalition has left us in the worst possible position to weather the coming storm.
Grubsheet wrote a scathing article two days ago about the demand by the Fiji Commerce and Employers Federation for a government “financial assistance plan” to help business through the coming downturn. Clearly if there’s to be any assistance, it should be for Fiji’s most deprived and vulnerable citizens, not the fat-cats of the local business community. Yet even then, the outlook is extremely bleak.
You would think from the speeches of successive MPs in the parliament this week that it is business as usual. Apart, of course, from the shocking incidence of HIV, the escalating drugs crisis and the breakdown of the only lift at the CWM to move patients out of surgery back to intensive care. Where were the speeches warning of the need for collective belt-tightening to meet the coming economic tsunami? The Finance Minister signaled the potential danger but no-one else.
Fiji really is a fool’s paradise at a time when the rest of the world is waking up to a steadily escalating threat. Because even the existing local economic indicators are dire, let alone what will happen when the global fallout from events in the Middle East finally hits.
Grubsheet has invited our occasional commentator on economic affairs – a one-time advisor to the Fijian government who has requested anonymity but has his finger firmly on the pulse – to give us an update on where exactly Fiji stands right now. And it makes for sobering reading.
Who has put us in this position? Our politicians, of course. Whether it is extravagance in government or racist policies in the civil service and offices of state that have contributed to a mass exodus from Fiji, the blame rests squarely with the Rabuka government.
As we remarked two days ago, no-one can hold them directly responsible for what is happening in the Middle East that has triggered a looming crisis in Fiji. Of course they didn’t know it was coming. But they are certainly responsible for putting the nation in the worst possible position to weather the coming storm.
When they should have been prudent and cautious, they have been profligate and reckless. When they should have taken a lead in insisting that Fijians live within their means, they have behaved like pigs at a trough. And now – to use another barnyard analogy – the chickens are about to come home to roost.
Read on for the current economic state of the nation. The figures are from February 2026 – just last month. They show that even before Donald Trump attacked Iran and triggered the current crisis, we were already in trouble. And now things are about to get much worse.
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SNAPSHOT OF THE FIJIAN ECONOMY AS OF FEBRUARY 2026
The country appears to be in an almost a stationary position economically, although the conflict in the Middle East will change this position for the worse. It is directly related to the current government continuing to be wracked by controversy, corruption allegations and a lack of leadership.
So let’s review the key elements:
POPULATION
The projected population of Fiji in 2026, according to the Bureau of Statistics, is 902,623. This shows the population has grown by only 17,736 in the nine years since 2017 as opposed to a growth of 47,616 in the period between 2007 and 2017.
This lack of growth is projected to be a result of an accelerated exodus of Fijians and others from Fiji since 2023. The estimated number who have left for overseas now stands at 140,000 and may continue as the current Government continues its discriminatory policies in employment and service provision.
We are in danger if this exodus continues of becoming Viti Lailai – Little Fiji. Already in fact, the Bureau of Stats figures may not be reflecting the real reduction in population, with some observers claiming it is approaching the low 800-thousands.
Those who are leaving are some of Fiji’s most productive workers whose taxes have propped up the economy. So we are left with a shrinking tax base from which the government can raise the revenue it needs to provide the nation with adequate services.
GOVERNMENT
The number of civil servants and general workers employed by the state has grown substantially over the last three years.
There were 24, 255 civil servants when the current government came to power in December 2023. Since then, the number has grown to 30,164 (1 in 30 Fijians). So we have more civil servants catering for a smaller population. And It is simply unsustainable.
This directly increases the cost of government through increased salary costs, FNPF contributions, office rental, furniture, communications equipment, IT, cars, allowances and training.
Using the current salary of a Band E (Step 3) employee earning $24,412.50 as an average cost, the estimated cost increase is $144.2% million ($144,253,462) without taking into consideration FNPF contributions or the additional running costs.
The projected operating cost of government at the 2022-23 Budget was $2.67-billion ($2,600,743,100) while in the 2025-26 Budget the projected cost is $3.98-billion ($3,906,866,100) – an increase in 3 years of $1.3-billion ($1,306,123,000).
This is well beyond the inflation rate and reflects a bigger government with bigger costs. It directly affects the amount of money government can invest in infrastructure, in the services it can provide to the people and the amount of money it has to borrow to run the government.
THE ECONOMY
The published budget papers tell us that in the 11 years from the 2014 Budget to the 2025-26 Budget, the projected revenue was $42-billion ($42,165,068.6 million) but the expenditure over the same period was $51-billion ( $51,053,128.7 million), creating a deficit of $8-billion ($8,867,960.7 million).
Together with debt repayments, that sees a total projected gross debt of $13-billion ($13,212,615.1Million). So there is no question that we are living beyond our means and that this is unsustainable and must be addressed.
The Reserve Bank report at December 2025 shows gross government debt at $10.9-billion with $3.6 billion being external debt (loans). The debt is higher than promised by the Government when it came to power. The FijiFirst government left a debt of $9.5-billion and the Coalition promised to reduce it. It has not been reduced. On the contrary, it has increased by $1.4-billion.
As for the argument the government makes that the ratio of debt to GDP has fallen, this does not diminish the amount of debt that Fiji has accrued. Debt is debt and must be paid for by government from revenue raised. Increasing the cost of government just compounds the problem.
In terms of capital expenditure, the Government allocation in the 2025-26 budget has not kept pace with inflation and in the 2025-26 budget, was the lowest allocation in a decade. This impacts infrastructure maintenance, replacement and upgrades.
FOREIGN ASSISTANCE
The amount of money being provided to Fiji by countries such as Australia, New Zealand, the United States, the European Union, Japan, Korea and China has gone up significantly in the past three years. This includes budget support, infrastructure development, defence capability and project and program development.
While the total amount of foreign assistance is not easily quantified, it is estimated to be in the order of $600-700 million. Without this level of support, Fiji’s financial position would be significantly worse.
OTHER INDICATORS OF NOTE IN THE FEBRUARY ECONOMIC REVIEW OF THE RESERVE BANK :
Tourist numbers were up by just 0.03%. Close to stagnant.
The 2025 crushing season resulted in 12% less sugar being produced;
Net VAT collections are down 16.5%;
New consumption lending was 18.3% less;
Vehicle registrations were down 0.5%;
Inward remittances rose by 2.6 percent to $1.35-billion (to $1,358.1m) in 2025;
Outward remittances also grew strongly by 7.9% (to $539.9-million) in the same period.
Headline inflation is expected to gradually rise over the course of 2026 given the lower VAT rate and the bus fare subsidy. And then we have the sudden oil crisis.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT
The outbreak of war in the Middle East and the resulting rise in the price of oil (more than $US100 a barrel coupled with Iranian threats to drive it up to $US200 a barrel) will have a dramatic effect on the Fiji economy.
It will particularly hit the tourism sector, with potential visitors tightening their own spending because of cost-of-living pressures at home plus rises in airfares and airline operating costs.
The upside is that we could see a rise in tourism numbers as the war causes travelers in our own region to reconsider visiting Middle East and European destinations and seek safer locations with lower costs such as Fiji.
The Middle East conflict will flow through the domestic economy as fuel prices are forced upwards. The price of everything from food to building materials will rise and push up the rate of inflation.
In Australia, for example, the average price of unleaded petrol has risen to $A2.07 a litre in metropolitan areas of Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong, with diesel ratcheting up to $2.23. In Fiji, based on the current exchange rate, that would mean $F3.17 a litre for unleaded and $F3.51 for diesel. (This is based on yesterday’s fuel price and it is rising on an almost daily basis)
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The global news headlines are steadily becoming more ominous as each day passes and it is already clear that any notion that this war will be over quickly is a fantasy. It is, in fact, spreading by the day.
Is Fiji prepared for what is to come? An already dismal economic performance before the war steadily worsening as the days and weeks progress? Not judging from the headlines in the Fijian media, which is preoccupied with everything but the global economic situation and its potential impact on Fiji.
We are about to be shaken out of our complacency and witness what happens when economic chaos gets piled on the dysfunction of governance that has marked the three years of Coalition rule. And when cost-of-living pressures exacerbate the threat to the social fabric of drugs, HIV and crime.
We are entering a very dangerous period yet our politicians and much of the rest of the nation seems oblivious to the threat. And the tragedy for Fiji is that we have never been less prepared as a nation to deal with the impending storm.
There is no quick fix solution for Fiji’s economic situation. The demise began from Rolex’s 1987 coups followed by Speight and Bai.
With a heavily import-base economy and only locally manufactured product of grog bilo to export, Fjji has nothing left to offer.
Only good at political turmoil, back stabbing and liumuri followed by everlasting court cases.
The sugar industry was killed by the politics of racism and hate for the indo Fijian community. Previously the native land owners were receiving land lease monies from indo Fijian famers and occupants at least but now they fled Fiji and will continue to flee overseas for security and prosperity or places where they are valued and their contributions appreciated.
Now with barren land and no Kai India around to farm, the native owners are staring at overgrown grasses and saying “Caita Kai India sa dro, sa sega na lavo lakomai, levu na lega, sega na lavo lakomai, caita na politiki, con saraga na.
So in simple terms Fiji is returning back to pre-colonial times. Educated itaukeis are also fed up and are leaving in droves.
You analyzed it right GD. With massive migration, Fiji’s tax base is eroded significantly.
This war will not end easily. Fiji needed the sugar industry but sadly this industry will not get to its feet ever again.
With export of grog bilo only, nothing looks promising.
Totally agree with GD and your view that Fiji is in trouble, but thinking the sugar industry could fix any problem is way off the mark—outdated, in fact it’s a disaster. It is and has been a totally subsidised industry— for how long, 30–40 years?? The colonials that everyone curses should have shut it down when they left. It had preferential prices from the EU, and over the last 20 years, by how many hundreds of millions has the taxpayer propped it up, waste of money, better spent on infrastructure, a direct road across Viti Levu would be good money spent??
Just look at a graph, for Christ’s sake — it’s been on a downward trend for as long as graphs have been around. Flogging a dead horse! These days, the majority of the farmers couldn’t give two hoots. The crop is very poor, so is the attention to it. Most farmers’ families have gone offshore for better education and jobs, and send money home to mums and dads to enjoy the sunsets.
The same people are sitting on some of the most productive land in the country. The only reason it still exists is political— a block vote for whoever tickles their fancy. Nothing more, nothing less.
Complete waste of good land, just like Rabuka and the coalition government. Tamani waste of time!!
and you wonder why I call for a “One Party State”.
This system that has bureaucrats, civil and public, as overlords.
Nuisance racist irreligious compromised bigots at the helm that is not attached to the rudder. A ship full of rats into everything.
A military Commander on the aft-deck pushing rope.
Adrift, in the vast pacific ocean, with remittances and foreign assistance keeping us afloat, and that visitor , who is now in terror of loosing his or her job, car, business, house, partner, kids no longer able to visit.
We, the people, under this present political system, have no agency.
I speak to the Military Council, in Jesus’s name, take action, there is a tsunami coming our way.
Farmers and villagers need to be mobilised, the people need to be mobilised for a very high risk of collapse of the word economy, which will take us out.
The Military is the only institution that can achieve mobilization country wide, keep order, without fear or favour.
The Westminster multi-party system needs to be gone, it has been the bane of our country for 50 years.
The term of this Parliament is nearly up and we have a lame duck government that will not be missed by the vast majority of the people. The last thing we need is an election budget in June with vote buying give away of money that will be needed for urgent national mobilization for food production
Cost of election will be in the $100 million dollar range.
Better spent on setting up peoples committees, district , up to national assemblies.
Make law for Sec 121 of the Constitution, the Transparency and Accountability Commission – set up under this Law, District Guardian Councils aka District T&A Commissions.
If we mess up under this system, approved by God, then we have nobody to blame but ourselves. Leaders of 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000.
If the Military Council wants help, then I and 10,000 other citizens can help our nation govern and administer ourselves with your help.
Give those in Parliament a choice, see out your Parliamentary term under Military guidance as an interim government. All benefits halved. or resign.
All those implicated in CoI , to be removed from their positions of Public service .
Prime Minster to be removed for corruption and jailed . That gold bauble on his wrist is all the evidence the nation needs. Jail was good enough for Qarase, then it is certainly good enough for the snake, he certainly has a duffel bag full of sins.
There will be no “next elections”. There will be committees and assemblies of the people. Four assemblies , one each from the 4 divisions, who elect the National Assembly who nominate the Central Committee.
WE, the people , determine priorities and the bureaucrats implement.
WE, the people, get advice from professionals to all issues, negotiate with neighbours and set priorities.
Guardian Councils keep us all honest, especially our civil and public servants.
Under this system, if we screw up, there will be nobody to blame but ourselves.
See how we progress under some real “democracy”.
Half the country are female.
Half the country are urban dwellers.
85% of the population are under the age of 50.
Really? Most productive land? Where? Most cane farms are so unproductive because all the nutrients have been sucked out of it.
Can we send the “God’s Chosen People” back to the “Holy Land” which was “promised” to them 3000 years or so ago?
I’m rooting for Iran – as Iran is quite busy since 28th Feb re-uniting these sewer rats with their God.
Can we start with Gavoka and Kepa and the many other IsraHell converts.
GO IRAN!!!!
Once Ramadan is over, then the chosen people will be needed to help USA.
Mark my words.
Putin would be loving this.
To all the citizens of Fiji and those that read Grubsheet every day like me, this is your message:
Calm before the Storm….we are almost there…31AD plus 2000 years is 2031…we are getting closer the of probations time generally referred to as the Close of Probation as described in Revelation 22:11…it will be calm before the storm…Daniel 12:1-2 …”At that time Michael shall stand up. The great prince who stands watch over the sons of your people; And there shall be a time of trouble. Such as never was since there was a nation. Even to that time. And at that time your people shall be delivered. Every one who is written in the book. And many of those who sleep in the dust of the earth shall awake. Some to everlasting life. Some to shame and everlasting contempt.”
We must repent our sins to the Living God Yahweh now before its too late – all these earthly things will come to an end soon…the best thing of all is to be with the Living God Yahweh in His new Kingdom – Jerusalem as promised to all people of this planet earth, Jews and Gentiles…God Bless Fiji
Crikey. As if things aren’t grim enough.
Vinakavakalevu Sir for your approval to highlight this preeminent message of the last days to all your readers! God Bless you always for standing up for the truth in our beautiful Fiji islands!
You been blowing your shofar?
Good Lord!
This person must be part of the SDA doomsday cult.
Will make any world event part of “The Sign”.
Give it up already! It ain’t happening. Hasn’t happened in the last 2000 years. It’s not happening in your lifetime.
Lets just concentrate on being better human beings on this earth instead of worrying about some fairy tale.
Bring back Biman, Fiji’s best finance minister in history. Better than Aiyaz Sayed Khaiyum any day.
Biman will save the economy. He is the only professor in economics to be Fiji’s finance minister, and people were jealous. He was unfairly removed and Fiji is facing karma but there is still time to right the wrong.
Biman is a brilliant economist and professor and we need him to save the people of Fiji. He is selfless, visionary and the man for the moment. Aiyaz destroyed Fiji. Biman will save Fiji!
Biman put us in this mess, you fool. How can he have “saved Fiji” when the national debt has risen $1.4 billion in three years and he can’t keep his nose clean enough to stay in the job?
Please God. Give me the doomsayers any day than this cult worshiper.
There’s a word for these types graham..its Andh bhakts..or blind followers ..Wonder what he’s high on..
Biman is a self-serving dickhead. Put him away in the orange uniform.
Mate…you must be smoking some strooong sh*t. It’s definitely cooked your brain! Or whatever is left of it.
is that you Kirti?
Well, mister ‘not happy’ certainly put a dampener on the weekend. Did all the other religions come up with this prediction or is this just one true one out of the hundreds of others that span the world?
Vinaka Mr. Davo for reading the preeminent message – it is loud & clear!
This is not a prediction it is the prophecy message in the bible written more than 2000+ years ago for these last day events, we are living in now to prepare for the One and Only True Living God Yahweh return. P (The Messiah). Please read His prophecy written by Prophet Isaiah 66:15-24. God Bless you!
How come the iTaukei have taken up a vulagi religion with so much passion when they were wearing grass skirts only 150 years ago. When Isaiah and Jesus and Moses and the rest of them were around I am not sure what the iTaukei were wearing and eating. Suddenly they all are experts at quoting from the Bible.
Anyhow, suddenly they are all Israelites.
It don’t make any sense to me, as a black American would say.
It don’t make any sense to me says
God bless you fellow citizen (“It don’t make any sense to me says”) of the republic of Fiji – there is no vulagi religion mentioned in the bible nor the 4000+ Christian religions existing in the world today….No itaukei is expert in the bible, only those that truly humble themselves before the Living God Yahweh and serve Him in Spirit and Truth will see HIM when He returns as He stated in 1 Thessalonians 4: 14-18 …all itaukei are Gentiles (Romans 11, Gentiles are described as “wild olive branches”(None of them are Jews or Israelites)…God Bless you abundantly!
I think you need your head checked. You obviously have issues and Yahweh is not the answer and no one in coming or returning in our lifetime so we need not worry. Acha?
I thought the history of the iTaukei and Israelites were very similar. That is what Pastor shouts on his TV program. So a lot of you are Israelites – I am not saying it, they are.
A plane load went to Israel on a dinau pilgrimage and they ran when the fireworks started, instead of staying to protect the Holy Land. Bunch of hypocritical freeloading imbeciles if you ask me. More like pretenders, just like you.
Sir, I thank you for your kind wishes, but you really need to look at the science. Adam and Eve were not the first two humans on this planet earth. There is evidence of human life millions of years before the Bible was written. If you go to church you will hear the same cherry picked verses rolled out every week, do a deep dive into it and read all the hundreds of pages never read out by the priests and vicars on a Sunday morning. You will never look at it the same way again.
Frightening the uneducated by predicting the end is nigh isn’t helpful. Religions world wide have been responsible for more deaths than all the plagues and diseases, with their wars, all in the name of one of the many, many Gods they worship.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but no one has returned from the dead to boast about the great time they are having in heaven.
Everyone believes in the one true God they follow, and they can’t all be right. But if it gives them hope and solace, that’s fine. Just don’t count on it.
Davo, there is one principle that is absolute truth. The Devil comes out of the bottle. 😉
Brother Davo,
That is your choice to believe it or not or believe only in the science.
Deaths is the absent of life – can happen to anyone for that matter and we can blame the chief evil angel, Lucifer or even the Living God Yahweh, who allows everything to happen for purpose in this world and in heaven above…
The Living God Yahweh created this planet in accordance to the biblical timeline not science – for you and me that is a choice to choose I believe in the former and have faith in the Living God Yahweh until His return.
God Bless you and a blessed Sabbath!
In some instances the “Scientists ” have more faith or fantasy in their theories or “evidence” to back up their conjectures than the people of a religious bent. If followers of science want to make something credible by saying ‘over millions or billions or trillions of years’ that is convenient intellectual laziness and fraud.
Someone or Something designed and constructed Rambo’s working Rolex….and certainly not over a million years. And the human is a far more complicated functioning entity. Think. Give credit to the designer and manufacturer.
Surely the people of Israel will not forsake one of their flock and not come to their assistance?
After all, the iTaukeis believe they are one of the lost tribe of Israel so its only natural the government of Israel throws a few million into the Fijian governments coffers to keep them going.
The Fijians have even opened an embassy there, so why is Israel not lifting a finger (or a missile) to assist Fiji during their hour of need?
Maybe those who went to Jerusalem on that Fiji Airways chartered flight and still have not paid can help the Fiji economy out.
Where are the Israeli doctors, agricultural experts and scientists that were supposed to come to fiji to help the economy? Is Israel going to connect a pipeline to fiji once our fuel dries up in just a couple of weeks?
The itaukei always wanted to live off the land. Let’s see what happens once food supplies start dwindling and electricity, water starts to shut down followed by the ripple effects of what is happening around the world.
All this talk about YAHWEH, Bible and lost tribes and Adam with Eve…….eh yes this lot Adam and Eve. We the people of this Earth would still be in the garden of Eden playing Harps rather than Harping on this platform had Adam and Eve been Chinese. They would have eaten the talking snake and not the forbidden fruit and we would have no FICAC,no TLTB, no Native land.
We would be hugging, making out under those trees which once was the now eaten snakes abode whilst wearing grape leaves over our manhood.
No arguments, no fighting for land, no wars, just pure Woodstock !!
No Malimali, No Charlie Charters, ahhh what bliss that would be. But no ! stupid Eve listened to the talking snake and here we are. Let’s hope Eve isn’t a patron saint of FWRM or FWCC or we will repeat history …. .again !!
No offense to my Chinese brethren, we Indians are known to eat dogs in Assam.
dalit dogs eating dogs?
Now that sounds like the dog eat dog culture pervasive in Hindis.
It’s excellent vision and leadership of the Coalition government to have taken Fiji into the Dark Ages. It will be survival of the fittest, the richest and the chiefs.
Instead of gas for fuel energy, firewood can be utilized for outdoor cooking or lovo. Instead of using petrol/oil premix fuel for the colonialist white man-made outboard engines, we can revert back to the clean green bamboo bilibili (incidentally Yamaha / Yanmar probably the most common outboard / inboard engines are Japanese ).
And walking instead of taking a bus or taxi would be good for the nation’s health and well-being – the latter constitutional mandate or burden of the well-being and welfare of Fijians can be relieved of the RFMF without causing anguish and deliberation at Berkeley Crescent or QE Barracks.
And Madam Tabuya and her friends if really famished, could boil and eat Fiji Airways airbuses which are colonial and capitalist tools of the ‘oppressors’ anyway.
But perhaps not, because sailing to the next overseas junket in a drua would not be quite the same.
It don’t make any sense to me says
Brother I am not here to debate with you on the Living God Yahweh – it is your choice if you want to believe Him or not. But one thing is certain and that is His coming is immanent…He will take only those that believe in Him, kept the faith in Him and serving Him in Truth & Spirit …
The close of probation is near and if you choose to ignore this warning, then it is your choice, Yahweh does not force anyone to follow Him. He is a Great & a loving God, who forgives our sins so that we can have eternal life in His New Kingdom – the New Jerusalem!
I understand you have strong views, but I would appreciate it if we could keep this conversation respectful, even if we don’t agree. I find hope in my faith, and I’d prefer to leave it at that. God Bless you!
I think that’s enough religion for now. This is about the imminent economic challenge to Fiji, not the Second Coming.
Even He has probably had enough argument. Let’s move on.
I hate to say this but the itaukei are incapable of running anything, and certainly not government. That’s the basic problem in Fiji.
As the proportion of the iTaukei population increases – where we are now 63% – there is a corresponding downward regression of society, respect for the rule of law, productivity and food production.
Someone should do a follow up check on all those free tractors that the late Vaitimi Rayalu was handing out left, right and centre. They are just being used to run errands to the store. Farmers have grown cassava but it’s rotting in the ground as no one wants to buy it.