Savenaca Narube and his Unity Fiji Party are the big winners in the first opinion poll of voter intentions since just after the 2022 election conducted by the independent policy think-tank – the Centre for Democracy and Dialogue, formerly Dialogue Fiji.
Unity is the second most popular party at 13.6 per cent after the People’s Alliance on 27.5 per cent and Savenaca Narube is second preferred prime minister on 9 per cent after Sitiveni Rabuka on 13.6 per cent, trouncing all other contenders in a shock result that will have the other parties reeling.
Incredibly, the third preferred prime minister is Frank Bainimarama despite the fact that he cannot stand in the coming election because of his year-long jail sentence. But Bainimarama’s One Nation party is lagging badly, at number eight on the preferred list after the Next Generation Party.
Despite speculation that Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum might lead One Nation, his own personal support is dismal, attracting only one per cent of 1,673 voters surveyed in the poll held to international standards and that the CDD maintains is an accurate reflection of how people will vote. In fact, Sayed-Khaiyum is at the very bottom of the list of preferred prime ministers, which along with his current legal travails, may be in the final nail in any ambition he might still have to lead.
Among other notable features of the poll:
- Sitiveni Rabuka may still be the d’Hondt “big man” but the fall in his personal support as preferred prime minister to 13.6 per cent is a big blow to his prestige. This is undoubtedly a reflection of the loss of confidence in his leadership by a great many voters and the chaos of his “I am not aware” rule. Coupled with the collapse of FijiFirst , the reduction of the PAP’s electoral share has paved the way for a number of smaller parties to be able to vault over the 5 per cent threshold and win seats.
- Depending on the eventual outcome on election day, there is even a chance based on these figures of Rabuka winding up in opposition if three or four parties – led, for argument’s sake, by Savenaca Narube – form a Coalition to defeat the PAP and whoever it beds down with.
- SODELPA is also polling well in third position ahead of the NFP, People First and the Fiji Labour Party, though Aseri Radrodro trails Biman Prasad and Mahendra Chaudhry as preferred prime minister. It will encourage SODELPA in the notion that it has nothing to lose by refusing to vote for the Constitutional Amendment Bill next week and may, indeed, have a great deal to gain if it can cast itself as the ultimate defender of i’Taukei rights.
- In a clear sign that People First may be benefiting from public perceptions that it is the party of Frank Bainimarama, not One Nation, the People First leader, Inia Seruiratu, polls dismally at just 2 per cent, dragging along the bottom with Filimoni Vosarogo and Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum. Bainimarama is being urged to make the distinction more forcefully of precisely who he is aligned with and this result reinforces the urgent imperative of doing so.
- Sitiveni Rabuka’s wannabe successors in the PAP – Manoa Kamikamica and Lynda Tabuya – are going nowhere. While Rabuka is preferred prime minister at 13.6 per cent, Kamikamica is languishing on 2.6 per cent and Lynda Tabuya is even worse at 2 per cent. All of which means that neither of them has captured the public imagination over the past four years and Rabuka remains as valuable to the PAP as a gold Rolex, at least while the d’Hondt “big man” electoral system remains in place.
- The folly of the Coalition government making constitutional change the priority of its term in office is laid bare with “Constitution, law and elections” way down the list of voter priorities at number 10. Most of those surveyed put ” Leadership, integrity and manifestos” as their main priority followed by “Jobs, wages and economy” and “Drugs, crime and public safety” at number 3.
- This is extremely bad news for the People’s Alliance because if most voters think that constitutional change isn’t as important as other issues, voter turnout for any referendum on the new draft constitution is likely to be low. In short, the government has spent four years obsessing about an issue that might be important to it and the Great Council of Chiefs but not to ordinary Fijians.
- As we’ve noted, Rabuka’s falling share of the vote coupled with the loss of Frank Bainimarama as the other “big man” under the d’Hondt system has opened up huge opportunities for others to make it over the 5 per cent threshold needed to get any seats in the parliament. The CDD poll predicts that assuming voter intentions remain the same come election day, the PAP will be joined in the new parliament by Unity Fiji, SODELPA, the NFP (yes, I’ve clearly been wrong to write them off), People First, the Fiji Labour Party, Next Generation and One Nation, in that order.
- While some will believe this is good for democracy, it isn’t good for stability in the governance of the country. The Balkanisation* of the electorate into multiple smaller parties means that the fight for the spoils of office and the horse-trading that has characterised the current “three-legged stool” is likely to get much worse, with eight parties in the parliament jostling for coalition deals and cabinet positions.
- The nation owes the Centre for Democracy and Dialogue and its CEO, Nilesh Lal, a vote of thanks for finally taking the political temperature when we have all been in the dark for nearly four years about the true state of the parties. Why have neither of the two main media groups – the Motibhai Patels at the Fiji Times and CJ Patel at the Fiji Sun – commissioned opinion polls when the Fiji Times, at least, used to routinely do so with its Tebbutt poll? They clearly decided it wasn’t in their commercial interests. The last Tebbutt poll in July 2023 gave the Coalition government a 72 per cent approval rating and we all know it has been downhill ever since.
- Finally, they say voters are always smarter than they are given credit for. Frank Bainimarama may be unable to stand in the coming election but he is still the number 3 choice of prime minister – a clear vote of confidence in him and the relative stability of the Bainimarama years. Similarly, Lenora Qereqeretabua has polled remarkably well for someone who isn’t a party leader and is indicating that she intends to leave politics, as has the charismatic Apisai Moce, (Apisai who?) the head of the New Generation Party. Which tells us the voters know quality when they see it.
- On the other hand, two of the most ambitious of the current crop of MPs – Goldfinger, Manoa Kamikamica, and the Minister for Bonking and Weed, Lynda Tabuya – have been repudiated. For “Mr Sweet” to get just 2.6 per cent support when he has been such a high profile minister means his behind-the-scenes campaign to lead the PAP is dead in the water. As for Lynda Tabuya, to get just 2 per cent support when those surveyed say integrity is the most important issue pretty much says it all. Lynda doesn’t have any integrity and most of the country knows it. Which makes her own dream of becoming prime minister a pathetic fantasy.
First, an overview of the results in extracts from the CDD media release….
And for the entire survey – including how people voted in various parts of the nation – please go to the CDD website:
POSTSCRIPT 1/
And now that we know that Savenaca Narube is the second preferred prime minister after Rolex Rambo, don’t miss him on Sashi Singh’s program on Sunday.
POSTSCRIPT 2/
Who cares what Manoa Kamikamica thinks? The Fiji Times, for one, which has him on today’s front page.
But why should anyone take any notice of “Mr Sweet” when he is only getting 2.6 per cent of the vote? That’s a question the whole country will be asking itself as the fallout from this poll sinks in.
Kamikamica is a Nowhere Man – to coin the title of the Beatles song – ” sitting in his nowhere land, making all his nowhere plans for nobody”.
Song for Manoa…
*BALKANISATION:
Balkanisation is the process of dividing a larger region, country, or system into smaller, typically hostile or competing independent entities.
The survey may be there but seeing the comments on tik tok and Facebook I doubt NFP will make it to parliament
That’s the thing. Social media with its likes, comments, and views is not a good indicator of votes.
In the leadup to the 2022 elections, Lynda Tabuya got 5 times the interactions of Biman but they got nearly the same number of votes. Even Lenora got more interactions on social media than Biman but got less than half his votes.
If NFP votes for Bill 32 at the 3 rd reading they should be hunted down and congratulated as the most despicable parliamentarians that Fiji has ever had since 1970. They should then be rewarded with, not Amendment, but Repeal of NFP. Consigned to hell at the next elections
Filimoni Vosarogo is a racists mongrel. At a limited gathering of his close associates talanoa session he was mentioning how he is on a mission to try revert all Crown Lease to the natives. This idea will propel him to be more liked by itaukei and ultimately lead PAP after Rabuka goes out. Insiders of Lands Department tell me that he does not reply to Kai India or vulagis emails or letters seeking Ministerial help. He is a sheep in wolves clothes.
Narube can get all the votes he wants but the other 54 people who will run under the Unity banner must pull their weight too.
Last elections, PAP managed to get 33 candidates over 1000 votes, NFP had 8, SODELPA with 5 while Unity only managed to get Narube over the 1000 vote threshold with the next highest vote getter receiving less than 800 votes.
The top 10 vote getters for Unity only managed to get less than 10000 votes. SODELPA got over 12000 and NFP got over 28000. For NFP, even if you remove the votes of the 4 other MP’s who will most likely not be competing this elections and the passing of Agni Deo Singh, they still get over 19000 votes.
For as much as this poll flatters Unity and Narube, the results will depend on the quality of the field of candidates the party will put forward. Keep in mind that this poll was conducted before any candidates from the leading parties were announced. SODELPA and NFP have named strong lineups and Unity will announce their batch of candidates on Saturday.
It will be much more interesting result and a realistic reflection of the voting intention of the public when the poll publishes results obtained after all parties have announced candidates.
Gosh, imagining getting elected in as Prime Minister on 13% (give or take) endorsement. How embarrassing.
Part of the reason indos are in this situation is because Aiyaz-Sayed Khaiyum ran Fiji like it belonged to his father. And little bro Riyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, a closet Islamist, ran FBC like it was his father’s personal property.
This little runt forgot he was appointed FBC CEO by his brother and there he was at the town meeting asking questions like a paragon of good governance. Listening to these two devotees of the prophet preach democracy is the height of hypocrisy, given how they behaved when in power. It’s because some of them that Indians are facing a backlash.
It’s a relief these two are no longer in power because their arrogance would have blown the roof and they would have gone after their critics with a vengeance and destroyed them. If not for FICAC’s ex pathetic handling of their case, these two bastards would’ve been in jail. Indians are suffering because of them.
Rabuka as preferred PM shows the average IQ of Fijians remaining in Fiji has gone down. Not surprising seeing how many have migrated since this snake returned to office.